Good Monday friends, it's been one of those days where the week has just been hard to get started on the right foot and mother nature isn't helping one bit. Temperatures have fallen throughout the day. It's hard to believe yesterday afternoon we were in the 50s and that Tuesday morning most of us will wake up with lows in the mid single digits. When you factor in the wind it will feel -10 to -20 in most locations tomorrow. Because of that a wind chill advisory is out for most of Eastern Kentucky through 11 AM Tuesday.
The one saving grace tonight is that clouds will keep the temperatures from dropping further than they already are. In fact a few of us along the Tennessee and Virginia border may see some snow showers tonight and tomorrow. Check out the latest look at the NAM forecasting model.
While I'm not expecting much widespread accumulation, if we do see a heavier shower or two it could create a few slick spots, especially in the higher elevations.
The good news is that there is some relief from the cold finally in sight. While we stay cold on Wednesday with highs in the lower 20s and lows in the single digits, it looks like we will crack 40 again on Thursday. Check out the GFS and European models take on temperatures over the next several days.
Now there is a bit of difference between the two, but the overall pattern is leaning warmer. Now you may look at the European model reading and say, Shane why aren't you forecasting 60s like it's showing? Well that is just one look at the model and one take on what it could do. While I look a lot at the operational model runs, I also look at what's called Ensemble models. The Ensembles take the model, and re-run the data through with a few slight changes and does it several times. This gives us a better forecast, especially in longer ranges.
This is a look at the European model's Ensemble of the temperatures over the next several days. The thing to pay attention too is the placement of the black square vs the green square. The black square represents the operational run of the model. The green square is the average of the ensembles. The ensembles tend to be a safe bet in long range forecasting, so I will tend to skew my forecast towards them, especially at longer ranges (past 3 days).
So here's hoping the models are right and that we do have some warmer weather heading our way, cause I for one am getting tired of the cold. Until next time, take care!