Miles will mean the difference in inches

A crippling winter storm will slam the southeastern United States, and we will see a glancing blow from it here in eastern Kentucky.

 You've probably heard by now about the big winter storm that is going to impact the deep south on Wednesday and Thursday.  Places like Atlanta and Charlotte may see several inches of snow and upwards of an inch of ice.  It's a storm that will literally shut down the south for the 2nd time in just a few weeks.

Here in eastern Kentucky, it looks like we are going to catch a glancing blow from this storm.  It appears we will not see a direct hit, but even a sideswipe is going to bring a lot of snow to portions of the mountains.  Here is my snowfall forecast as of 6 PM Tuesday.  


These numbers and lines can and will change as we track this storm moving into Eastern Kentucky.  25 miles will likely make the difference between who could see no snow, and who could see 6 inches!  The highest amounts will be along the KY/VA border where 2-4"s are likely and the higher peaks will likely see 3-6"s.   There is still a lot of uncertainity in this forecast so you will want to keep checking in with us over the next 24 hours.

Detailed Discussion:

Okay for those of you who really like to get into the science and nitty gritty behind the forecast, let's get to it.  As you know we look at several computer models everyday to help in our forecasting.  The models are really all over the place and are finally on converging on a solution for how this storm will play out.  Here's a sampling of the snow totals from a few of our major models.







As you can see there is a big variety in the different models.  I honestly leaned my forecast closer to the GFS than any other model because it seems to be closest to an average of all the models, and it handled the storm down in the Carolinas earlier today very well.  The difference in the models is causing problems for the forecast, so much snow that the Hurricane Hunters have been deployed to go gather more data about the storm and the environment surrounding it to put into tonight's computer model runs.  It is very rare for them to be deployed into a non tropical system.  Hopefully with this extra data the models will be able to come into better agreement and give us more confidence in the forecast. 

The bottom line is that this forecast is very fluid, meaning it WILL CHANGE some between now and tomorrow.  The track of these storms is always important, and even more so with this storm.  Keep it with the blog and and our Facebook page for updates as this storm moves in. 

-Shane Smith

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