Nailing Down Next Week

All the fun and games you would expect from a southern system are coming playing out quite nicely. This is a mess and it is one I am trying to nail down.

First things first... this weaker round of wintry precip has laid some decent totals down. All in the range of the forecast.

Here's a list!

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     SNOW             3 NE MONTICELLO         36.87N 84.81W
01/07/2011  E2.3 INCH        WAYNE              KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE 5 AM.

0114 PM     SNOW             FONDE                   36.60N 83.88W
01/07/2011  E2.0 INCH        BELL               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 630 AM.

0315 PM     SNOW             7 E LONDON              37.13N 83.96W
01/07/2011  E2.5 INCH        LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW
            IS MELTING AND MAIN ROADS IN GOOD SHAPE.

0400 PM     SNOW             FONDE                   36.60N 83.88W
01/07/2011  E3.5 INCH        BELL               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 114 PM. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
            36 DEGREES.

0527 PM     SNOW             THORNTON                37.16N 82.74W
01/07/2011  M3.0 INCH        LETCHER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AVERAGE OF 3.0 INCHES HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE ABOUT 7 AM

0530 PM     SNOW             4 S WHITESBURG          37.06N 82.83W
01/07/2011  E4.0 INCH        LETCHER            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SNOW DEPTH IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES ALONG
            ROUTE 119 ON TOP OF PINE MOUNTAIN AT 2600 FEET.

0543 PM     SNOW             THOUSANDSTICKS          37.19N 83.43W
01/07/2011  M3.2 INCH        LESLIE             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR TOTAL SINCE 6 A.M.

0545 PM     SNOW             2 NNW DICE              37.39N 83.24W
01/07/2011  M2.0 INCH        PERRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     SNOW             4 NW CRUMMIES           36.82N 83.26W
01/07/2011  E4.0 INCH        HARLAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     SNOW             FAUBUSH                 37.07N 84.83W
01/07/2011  E2.0 INCH        PULASKI            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     SNOW             STRUNK                  36.63N 84.43W
01/07/2011  M2.0 INCH        MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW DEPTH WAS 2 INCHES.


Now... the next system has all the potential in the world. Accumulating snow is pretty likely. Making that call on how much snow is where I keep running into issues. I have talked about two parts of this system over the last few days. The first wave will the low tracking through the deep south. The second low will develop as the 1st low works off the east coast. This keeps the pattern very snowy!

Rather than post all of those models I am going to break it down this way for the track.

What I have done here is rather than post several different models... I averaged the tracks! This is only to show you what the difference between the general tracks means! Even with the southern track I think snow is possible here in east KY. The northern penetration won't be as extreme. The group 1 track will put us in the snow for a much longer period of time meaning heavier snowfall totals.

Other data tries to push the ice line into the region and that could mean issues as well!

Snowfall Probability Forecasts

The image below shows the probability of snowfall reaching or exceeding 4" for a 24 hour period.

 

Still alot of uncertainty... but I am thinking I will be pretty close to a first call by Saturday afternoon or night... depending on the data of course! Either way I will have one out for you guys before the weekend is complete. I know you want totals... I just don't want to jump the gun. 

C-Ya Bye

 

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