First things first... this weaker round of wintry precip has laid some decent totals down. All in the range of the forecast.
Here's a list!
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1253 PM SNOW 3 NE MONTICELLO 36.87N 84.81W 01/07/2011 E2.3 INCH WAYNE KY CO-OP OBSERVER SNOWFALL SINCE 5 AM. 0114 PM SNOW FONDE 36.60N 83.88W 01/07/2011 E2.0 INCH BELL KY TRAINED SPOTTER 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 630 AM. 0315 PM SNOW 7 E LONDON 37.13N 83.96W 01/07/2011 E2.5 INCH LAUREL KY TRAINED SPOTTER 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW IS MELTING AND MAIN ROADS IN GOOD SHAPE. 0400 PM SNOW FONDE 36.60N 83.88W 01/07/2011 E3.5 INCH BELL KY TRAINED SPOTTER 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 114 PM. CURRENT TEMPERATURE 36 DEGREES. 0527 PM SNOW THORNTON 37.16N 82.74W 01/07/2011 M3.0 INCH LETCHER KY TRAINED SPOTTER AVERAGE OF 3.0 INCHES HAS ACCUMULATED SINCE ABOUT 7 AM 0530 PM SNOW 4 S WHITESBURG 37.06N 82.83W 01/07/2011 E4.0 INCH LETCHER KY BROADCAST MEDIA SNOW DEPTH IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES ALONG ROUTE 119 ON TOP OF PINE MOUNTAIN AT 2600 FEET. 0543 PM SNOW THOUSANDSTICKS 37.19N 83.43W 01/07/2011 M3.2 INCH LESLIE KY TRAINED SPOTTER 12 HOUR TOTAL SINCE 6 A.M. 0545 PM SNOW 2 NNW DICE 37.39N 83.24W 01/07/2011 M2.0 INCH PERRY KY TRAINED SPOTTER 0630 PM SNOW 4 NW CRUMMIES 36.82N 83.26W 01/07/2011 E4.0 INCH HARLAN KY TRAINED SPOTTER 0630 PM SNOW FAUBUSH 37.07N 84.83W 01/07/2011 E2.0 INCH PULASKI KY TRAINED SPOTTER 0630 PM SNOW STRUNK 36.63N 84.43W 01/07/2011 M2.0 INCH MCCREARY KY TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW DEPTH WAS 2 INCHES.
Now... the next system has all the potential in the world. Accumulating snow is pretty likely. Making that call on how much snow is where I keep running into issues. I have talked about two parts of this system over the last few days. The first wave will the low tracking through the deep south. The second low will develop as the 1st low works off the east coast. This keeps the pattern very snowy!
Rather than post all of those models I am going to break it down this way for the track.
What I have done here is rather than post several different models... I averaged the tracks! This is only to show you what the difference between the general tracks means! Even with the southern track I think snow is possible here in east KY. The northern penetration won't be as extreme. The group 1 track will put us in the snow for a much longer period of time meaning heavier snowfall totals.
Other data tries to push the ice line into the region and that could mean issues as well!
Snowfall Probability Forecasts
The image below shows the probability of snowfall reaching or exceeding 4" for a 24 hour period.
Still alot of uncertainty... but I am thinking I will be pretty close to a first call by Saturday afternoon or night... depending on the data of course! Either way I will have one out for you guys before the weekend is complete. I know you want totals... I just don't want to jump the gun.