No one ever said forecasting the weather in Kentucky was easy, in fact it's usually pretty challenging. However there is a big difference in challenging and almost impossible. Trying to put the forecast together for the time frame beyond the weekend was just a pain today. Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. You look at the 7-Day forecast and would say, well Shane this doesn't seem to complicated or to crazy, what's the deal?
The deal is once we get into the weekend and beyond the forecast models are all over the place. It's not a rare occurrence for the models to have maybe 5 to 10 degrees of difference between them. However today was quite the eye opener as I sat down to forecast. Check out the difference in temperature once we get into the weekend and beyond on the GFS and European models.
So for example take a look at the 00:00z (7:00 PM March 2) on March the 3rd (where it says 03/00). If you were to go with the European model the high would be around 68, but the GFS says the high will be 50. 18 degrees of difference. And notice I went even colder than that in the forecast because some of the other data was colder. Here's what's throwing the models for a loop. It looks like we are about to see a big surge of arctic air dive down from northern Canada.
This is some of the other data I was talking about. This is the ensemble output of the GFS Model. Remember ensembles are just taking the same model and tweaking a few variables and then rerunning the model to get a better average of a forecast. As you can see most of the ensembles are leaning to the cold side for the middle of next week which makes me think the potential of the cold is real, but we will have to wait and see if it will be as strong as the GFS is making it out to be.
The other thing to watch for is if we do go this cold, we could have to deal with some very messy wintry weather early next week. The GFS model is very aggressive on some wintry mess in our backyard.
As always it's something I will be keeping a very close eye on as we go through the next several days. The bottom line is that winter is no where near over yet.