Pattern uncertainty in the forecast

While warmer weather looks to return, it may not stick around for too long.

 Hello friends on a chilly Tuesday.  The snow ended up coming in a little harder than I originally anticpated and because of that the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Bell, Harlan, Letcher and Pike Counties until 10:00 pm tonight.  

The good news is once this latest round of snow moves out we should see two days of dry weather across the region as high pressure builds back in.


The drier weather ends on Friday as a warm front lifts into the southern end of the Ohio River Valley.  Check out the forecast models as we head into Friday and Saturday.  The showers should be scattered and not too heavy, but I would definitely keep the umbrella handy.  Also because of the frozen surface we may have some issues with freezing rain on Friday morning.


Sunday looks like we could see rain to snow as a cold front crosses the region.  This front originally looked like it was going to stall and slide north, but the newest model data is indicating it will pass and bring some wintry precipitation.


The forecast models are definitely having a hard time with the weather pattern we're about to enter.  As we go into February it looks like the souther branch of the jet stream (the subtropical jet) is about to come to life.  It's been quiet so far this winter, that's why most of our weather has been moving in from the northwest.  Now with the southern branch coming into play the forecast gets very complicated.  The computer models do not handle how these two features, the northern branch of the jet stream and the southern branch interactive.  There is going to be a lot of swings in the models in the medium to long range outlooks.  As such the forecast is going to change a bit, so don't get your heart set on the details of the forecast after about 3 or 4 days right now... it can and will change a lot.  We'll keep up with it the best we can and will continue fine tuning the forecast.


-Shane Smith

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