The preferred track for most energy over the next few days will be north of the commonwealth. A disturbance or two will swing through Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio this weekend. Most data keeps the wintry stuff north until Sunday. Notice I said MOST! Some data keeps trying to spread the snow down into eastern KY on Saturday. I'll go with what I feel and that is that Saturday would be snow free for most areas. Northern KY has the best chance to see snow.
Canadian Sat Night NAM Sat Night EURO Sat Night
These three keep moisture out of the region that night.
GFS Sat Night
The GFS has dipped the precip a couple of times this week into KY on Saturday night. Some of the others have backed off on moisture for Sunday, but the GFS has taken the moisture right back into KY. I still say the northern parts of KY stand the best chance of seeing the activity.
The real mess won't start until next week. It looks pretty wet with both rain and snow coming into the equation. The way it looks at this point...
- Sunday snow showers develop.
- Monday snow changes to rain
- Tuesday rain changes back over to snow
This is my first clean call on the system. We'll examine it more closely on Friday.