I have never been one to try get people worked up with these posts. I just tell you what I think and give fair warning of any major problems on the horizon. It's looking like we are going into that mode tonight. This is a nasty round of wet weather coming our way! The reason I say wet is because of the rain and snow potential. It's time to be prepared for an interesting weekend my friends!
Let's check the data!
GFS Sun Morning GFS Sun Afternoon
GFS Sun Night GFS Early Monday
The GFS has been very close to the same solution these last few days. It has been very consistent with track and change-over timing. If it can stay close to this pattern... I'll court it all the way to New York City! What I am seeing here is a decent amount of moisture cahnging to snow during the afternoon hours on Sunday and remaining that way through the very early morning hours on Monday.
Now what I am about to show you is strictly model data... it isn't my snowfall forecast! It is the GFS's take on how much snow we can expect!
GFS Snowfall thru Monday
This run covers a big chunk of southeastern KY with 2"-8" Just match the colors and you will see what your locale could receive! Here are a few high end examples... Pikeville 6"-8" Hazard 4"-6" Harlan 2"-4" Middlesboro 2"-4" London 2"-4" AGAIN... I stress this is just one model... but it has looked pretty decent the last few runs.
The NAM just got within range of the weekend earlier today. I woke up... checked the early stuff and thought I was dreaming! That's how impressive it looked at that point. Now... it's just chugging along here!
NAM Sun Morning NAM Sun Afternoon
NAM Sun Night NAM Early Monday
I can't say too much about the NAM since it just got within range over the last few runs. It is looking good though... as far as consistency is concerned! By that... I mean track! If you compare it to the GFS they are looking close enough for me! True change-over on Sunday afternoon! Even the same lingering pattern on Monday!
The NAM also has a snowfall forecast projection map. Here is what it is suggesting! It plotted a lot early on and then backed off! But once again... it says "Katie, Bar the door!"
This run has game! A Good 8"-14" swath across parts of eastern KY! WOW!! This is taking into account warmer air intruding in places like Harlan, Middlesboro, Hazard, Whitesburg, London, Somerset, and Williamsburg... just to name a few! While parts of Magoffin, Johnson, Martin, Morgan, and Floyd get slammed! Don't get too caught up on those numbers. This is just somthing to smile about... or run in terror LOL
Now on to the other data!
EURO Sunday AM EURO Sunday Afternoon
EURO Sunday Night EURO Monday Morning
The EURO started coming around these last couple of days. Early on... it had absolutely nothing in our area. It just keeps pumping the moisture in now! will the cold and snow connect? Yes! But for how long and how much will that equal in snow? That's something I am reviewing hot and heavy and I hope to have a First Call map out sometime today!
Keep checking back... I might get happy and do a video blog!
So here's my opinion as of right now! YES we are going to see some snowfall! I just can't be sure how much just yet! I do think that we'll see a significant amount across parts of Kentucky! I'll let all of you know soon!!!!!