Tracking Severe Weather Potential

By: Brandon Robinson
By: Brandon Robinson

Brandon Robinson has the latest on the possibilities for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

Update 7:00 PM by Shane Smith:

There's a reason we called this a potential for severe weather.  I even mentioned last night at the 11 PM news that it was not a gauarantee.  The chances looked good, the models were all aggressive on the storm chances, but mother nature threw a curve ball at the last second that caused us to hit a foul ball.  We got the storms like we expected, but they weren't as strong as we thought they would be.  The cloud cover simply prevented the atmosphere from super charging to fuel the thunderstorms.  So instead of severe storms, we saw typical summer storms.  More of those are possible tomorrow and then we dry up for a few days.  

Update 2:00 PM by Shane Smith:

Hey friends, just dropping in for a quick update on our storm chances.  So far clouds have hampered the development of severe storms however, a line of showers is building across the area right now.  The thing to watch for is how much the sun comes back out after these showers pass.  If it comes back out in full force we have a shot at seeing severe weather, if it doesn't those chances are going to be much lower.

Here's some of the latest computer models thoughts:




Hi-Res NAM:

As you can see the models are all over the place, which is usually  a sign that this thing is still very much up in the air.  It all depends on how much sun we see this evening and if that cause storms to develop.  It could very well end up being a bust.  Keep checking back with us.

Original Post by Brandon Robinson:

Quick update to the blog this morning, based on the new data just coming in. Our computer models are still showing at least two rounds of storms rolling through this afternoon, with the first moving in right before or around lunchtime. Here's the HRRR model for 11am:

This will be round one. The latest data shows it moving through relatively quickly, which will allow the sunshine to return and help fuel the second round of storms between 4 and 6pm. Take a look at the HRRR for 6pm:

The main threats from this system will be damaging wind and hail, along with heavy rain that could lead to some localized flooding. We will also see lots of lightning with this system. 

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area under a slight risk for severe weather today and tonight. The areas affected are highlighted in yellow.

The biggest concern is the wind. We are in the 30% category for strong wind, which is pretty moderate for our area.

And finally, the hail threat is also on the table. It is lower than the wind threat, but is still there at 15%.

So, what do all of these graphics mean? Let's break it down into one, the severe threats:

As always, the entire WYMT Sky Alert Weather Team is monitoring these storms and will tweet out and send alerts to Facebook as soon as they are issued. You will also see the watches and warnings scroll on your screen as soon as they are issued.

Not following us on Facebook or Twitter? Here are the links where you can do so:

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Morning Forecaster Brandon Robinson:



Weekend Meteorlogist Brandon Orr:



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