Tracking the Severe Threat and Tropical Storm Arthur

Chief Meteorologist Shane Smith has the latest on the potential for Severe Weather today, and a Tropical Storm that has formed off the Atlantic coast.

4:00 PM Update:

Storms are firing up across southern Missouri and will soon move into Western Kentucky.  The Storm Predicition Center has place portions of Western Kentucky under a severe thunderstorm watch.  

The storm threat here continues.  It looks like now the best chance of storms will be after 9 PM and they should wrap up by 2 AM.  The cap that I mentioned earlier is winning out now, so no storms are popping in Eastern Kentucky.  This should help to weaken the storms as they move into our region.  

More updates as needed.


Original Post:

Hello friends, stopping by for a midday weather update.  On the national weather news front, Tropical Depression 1 has strengthened this morning and is now Tropical Storm Arthur.  

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center continues to have it hugging the coast for the next few days.  It's now forecast to be a hurricane off the coast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday.

 If you have plans late week or early this weekend along the Atlantic Coast, you will want to monitor this storm. I know this is a big weekend for vacations, and this storm will impact places from the Georgia Coast up to the Delmarva Peninsula Thursday through Saturday. 

On the home front, the slight risk for severe weather continues today.  It looks like the best chance for sever weather in Eastern Kentucky will be between 8 PM and 2 AM.  Here's a look at the HRRR and NAM computer models for 11 PM and Midnight respectively:
NAM Midnight:
The computer models are trying to show a line of storms crossing the area during that time frame, however it's not a guarantee.  Here's why; the atmosphere this afternoon is going to be what we called capped.  It's going to be  hot today with highs in the 90s and heat indices pushing 100.  However in the atmosphere just above a mile up, it's going to start to warming with height.  This is what we call an inversion.  Temperatures generally cool the higher up you go in the troposphere, but every so often they will begin to warm as you go up in it in certain parts.  This is what we call an inversion.  Inversions tend to put a lid on storm development, or what we call a cap.
Because the cap is going to be in place, it's really going to limit our storm chances this afternoon, so we shouldn't see many pop ups today at all.  The big question is how much will that cap weaken by the time the storms get here late this evening.  If it's pretty strong still, the storms will dissipate and we may not even see any rain.  If it weakens enough, the storms will come on in and could be strong.  This is just something we will have to watch as we go through the day.
Once again the best chance for severe weather will be tonight between 8 PM and 2 AM, but it is NOT a guarantee.  In fact it's very much a coin flip chance.    Here's a look at all the tracking tools to keep you ahead of the storm chances tonight:




Areas that could become watches:

Keep it with WYMT throughout the day and we will keep you posted on the storm chances.

-Shane Smith


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