Well... here we are preparing for a pretty intense wintry system for the weekend. It's just now Tuesday, plenty of week left, and we all want to know what's going to happen with this system. I can tell you this... A LOT! I'll get to that in just a moment.
After starting off pretty cold on Wednesday... temps will climb into the 40s during the afternoon hours on Saturday. It could possibly happen for some on Friday, but the widespread thawing will have a better chance on Saturday. It's not looking like the prettiest of days either. Rain wil arrive on Saturday afternoon-evening and then begin going through changes by the end of the weekend.
Before I even get started I want you to know that what I say here is strictly speculation at this point. I hope my pre-event confidence will be strong by Friday. Right now, I am around 60% Still pretty decent as far as confidence goes. A lot can and will happen.
GFS Early Sunday GFS Sunday Morning GFS Sunday Afternoon
Euro Early Sunday Euro Sunday Morning Euro Sunday Afternoon
This is all I'll show you right now... I think what you see above will be a good indication of what's going on with other data. Some are running closer to others, but just notice the two above! The early Sunday stuff shows two very different tracks for the low. The GFS has the low in western KY and the Euro is nearlt into Wisconsin. The Sunday morning stuff looks pretty different as well. Again, the energy for the GFS is in Ky and the Euro is way up north! By Sunday afternoon both are showing snow, but the Euro has the best activity away from us and the GFS keeps the moisture here, but some of the energy may go missing or dumped somewhere else. Others look more like the Euro! Or closer to that track.