I can't help but get a little excited about the weekend potential since most of this winter has been... for a lack of better terms... A BORE! Some of you, I am sure, have really enjoyed the warm winter that we have experienced this year. I can't say that I have hated it at all... but I have missed some of the winter forecast challenges! Just like the one coming this weekend!
As usual... I'll talk about the days leading up to the really interesting stuff. Rain will return widespread on Thursday and it should be out of the are by Friday moring.
Then... Saturday and Sunday get here! The more data I see... the more it looks like this system will get here by late Saturday night. At that time it will mainly be falling as rain. Then if I court some data... it's not even making it here! Let's review!
I waited a little later to post since I wanted to see the latest runs... and they are interesting!
GFS Sun AM GFS Sun Afternoon
GFS Sun Evening
On Sunday morning the GFS is staying right where it has these past few days and that is laying some rain and snow on our area. The change happens between 1am and 7am to all snow. This has been pretty close to what I have seen with this model the last few runs. Now... I am waiting on a big northwest jog with the GFS! It's a very common occurance with this model and it being this far out!
Euro Sun AM Euro Sun Afternoon
Euro Sun Evening
The Euro is just a little slower to change to snow on Sun morning. This is a far cry from where the data was just a couple of days ago. It had nothing in east KY. Now it's very close to the GFS. Now will it hold? Or will they both end up like the next model I am going to show you!
I am going to post a few more images with this oneand show you a comparison!
Canadian Sun AM Canadian Sun Afternoon
Canadian Sun Evening Canadian Very Early Monday
Canadian Mon AM
With the Canadian it takes up until Sunday evenng for the rain to change to snow. Much slower than the others. It is more aggressive and it keeps the moisture around much longer than the other data. All three are showing a big time storm that rolls into the northeast!
Now what could this mean for east KY? Snow is looking more and more likely on Sunday going into Monday. But you have to remember that we are still pretty far out... and many things can and will change! I am keeping it in the forecast but it's WAYYYY too early to make a First Call! But keep coming back... the updates will be here!