I know I wasn't the only one enjoying the nice weather across southern and eastern Kentucky today. We saw mainly sunny skies and temperatures climbing up into the 60s. The warm weather may lead to a few showers tomorrow morning though. It should be just a few garden variety showers, but they may lead to a soggy morning commute in some local communities.
That's the simulated radar from the NAM model at 4:00 AM. After the showers move out we should see temperatures climb back to the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. If we see enough sunshine I think 60s are possible. Then as we move into Thursday more warm air will blast into the region and that could cause some more morning showers. Check out the NAM from 10:00 AM Thursday morning.
Then we wait for the potential of severe weather later Thursday. Most of the day will be dry and we will keep a very close eye on how much sunshine we see during the day. More sunshine equals a better chance at severe storms. If we see the morning rain over achieve a bit, it will cut back our severe weather chances. The best chance for severe storms will be between 6:00 PM and 4:00 Am Thursday. We will try to narrow that down as we go into tomorrow. Here's the latest NAM model at 10:00 PM Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center already has the region under a risk of severe weather Thursday night. Here's the very latest from them.
My main concern at this point is damaging wind. With the ground as saturated as it is and with a lot of those tree limbs weakened from the harsh winter so far, I think there is a big potential for trees to come down from these winds if they get strong enough. Also we may have to deal with a little isolated flooding. As always keep checking back with us at the situation evolves.