Winter Storm Thoughts- 6 PM Update:

Chief Meteorologist Shane Smith share's his thoughts on the Winter Storm Potential for tonight and Monday morning.

6:00 PM Update:

Here's a quick look at the updated snow forecast.  I'll have more coming up in just a little bit.

Original Blog:

I'm looking over the latest data for tonight's winter storm.  I have a few thoughts right now, and most of them center around someone is going to end up disappointed and someone is going to end up surprised.  

As I look over the newest data the cutoff between who could see significant heavy wet snow/ and who could see mainly a mix of rain with some freezing rain and light snow is astounding.  It looks like it will be less than 50 miles.  So this means any shift in the track of the storm will have MAJOR impacts on the forecast for your backyard.
Folks in Pike, Martin, Floyd, Knott, Perry, Letcher, Leslie, Clay, Harlan, Bell, Knox, Laurel, Whitley, McCreary, Wayne, and Pulaski Counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory.  This means we're expecting these counties to see rain, transition to period of freezing rain and finally end as light snow.  Snow accumulations in these counties will be generally LESS THAN TWO INCHES. That means you may not have any accumulation when you wake up tomorrow. However the freezing rain before the snow falls will cause extremely hazardous driving conditions Monday morning.
Folks in Morgan, Wolfe, Magoffin, Johnson, Breathitt, Owsley, Jackson, Lee, and Rockcastle Counties you are under a Winter Storm Warning.  This means we're expecting you all to see mainly heavy wet snow, with at least 2-4"s of accumulation possible, and upwards of 4-6"s of snow near the Mountain Parkway.  Travel conditions will be bad late tonight through the morning on Monday. There also will be the potential for some power outages as heavy wet snow may bring down tree limbs or power lines. Also some of the latest computers are showing the potential for even more snow than that, but we will have to see how the rest of the data comes in before adjusting the forecast.
THE BOTTOM LINE:  Everyone in Eastern Kentucky has the potential to see impact from this winter storm tonight.  It will vary greatly depending on you live, and depending on how this storm tracks.  There will be less than a 50 mile difference  between who absolutely hits the snow jackpot, and who may see no snow and mainly rain and freezing rain.  Just know that travel conditions tomorrow morning are looking pretty awful right now area wide.  As always we are tracking the storm and will have more tonight at 6 and 11. 
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