Neil

Reader takes issue with Rasmussen/Zogby Presidential Poll

By: Neil Middleton
By: Neil Middleton

Earlier this week, I posted the latest job approval ratings for President Barack Obama. Teresa takes issue with those numbers calling Rasmussen and Zogby “right wing” polls. She suggested I look at these polls.

Earlier this week, I posted the latest job approval ratings for President Barack Obama. 

The Zogby poll shows President Obama’s approval rating at 49-percent. 51-percent disapprove of the President’s job performance. The survey shows a drop from last month and slipping support among Democrats, Independents and young voters.
 
The Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday, October 22nd shows that 26-percent of the nation’s voters strongly approve of the President’s job performance. Rasmussen states that is the lowest level yet for President Obama.
 
Teresa takes issue with those numbers calling Rasmussen and Zogby “right wing” polls. Teresa sent me a couple of links via Twitter
 
Teresa suggested I look at the latest Real Clear Politics poll averages which show President Obama with a 52.4-percent approval rating. Only 43.4-percent disapprove of the President’s job performance when you average the polls together.
 
Teresa also sent me an article from Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire.  Goddard says recent public polling shows President Obama leads all Republican opponents in a possible 2012 race for the White House.
 
I've copied both articles below.   

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2009

Obama continues to lead 2012 contests

 
Almost a year after his election as President, Barack Obama continues to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for reelection.

Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.

This is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll and the seventh time Huckabee has polled closest to Obama. Speaking to the weakness of the field of potential Republican candidates he's the only with a positive favorability rating and even then it's only 33/29.

Huckabee's doing well because he connects better than the other GOP hopefuls with voters in the Midwest and South. For instance while Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty trail by 9, 17, and 18 points respectively in the Midwest Huckabee is down by just 3, something that could be a good omen for his prospects of again winning the Iowa primary as he did in 2008.

Romney is actually the most popular of the Republican candidates with independents, sporting a 38/28 favorability rating with them and holding Obama to just a 41-40 lead. One thing he'll probably have to contend with to a greater extent if he gets the 2012 nomination is his religion- 34% of respondents say they have an unfavorable opinion of it to 21% who look on it positively.

Palin's numbers have been somewhat mystifying over the last four months. Immediately after her resignation they actually improved to a positive 47/45 favorability rating. Since then though they've plummeted even with her largely out of the public eye and only 36% of voters have a favorable view of her with 51% holding a negative one. She has by far the worst numbers with both Democrats and independents.

Somewhat counterintuitively the best news in this poll might be for Tim Pawlenty. Only 27% of respondents have an opinion of him and it breaks down negatively, 16/11. He trails Obama by the widest margin. But with all of the better known Republican candidates looking pretty weak the door is really open for someone like him to step in and have a big impact on this race. No one expected Barack Obama to be the Democrats' 2008 nominee at this time four years ago, and the best hope for Republicans in 2012 may be to move beyond the Huckabee/Palin/Romney trio that all has the loser stench from last year.

Full results 
here

RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

President Obama Job Approval

Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 10/7 - 10/22 -- 52.4 43.4 +9.0
Gallup 10/20 - 10/22 1547 A 54 39 +15
Rasmussen Reports 10/20 - 10/22 1500 LV 49 50 -1
USA Today/Gallup 10/16 - 10/19 1521 A 50 46 +4
CNN/Opinion Research 10/16 - 10/18 1038 A 55 43 +12
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 1004 A 57 40 +17
FOX News 10/13 - 10/14 900 RV 49 45 +4
Marist 10/07 - 10/12 913 RV 53 41 +12
 

Congressional Job Approval

Poll Date Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 10/1 - 10/14 25.0 66.8 -41.8
FOX News 10/13 - 10/14 24 66 -42
CBS News 10/05 - 10/08 22 65 -43
Associated Press/GfK 10/01 - 10/05 33 64 -31
Gallup 10/01 - 10/04 21 72 -51
 

Generic Congressional Vote

Poll Date Sample Democrats Republicans Spread
RCP Average 10/1 - 10/18 -- 45.0 39.5 Democrats +5.5
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 1004 A 51 39 Democrats +12
Rasmussen Reports 10/12 - 10/18 3500 LV 37 42 Republicans +5
CBS News 10/05 - 10/08 RV 46 33 Democrats +13
Gallup 10/01 - 10/04 906 RV 46 44 Democrats +2
 

Direction of Country

Poll Date Right Direction Wrong Track Spread
RCP Average 9/29 - 10/18 39.6 56.3 -16.7
Rasmussen Reports 10/12 - 10/18 34 61 -27
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 44 54 -10
Daily Kos/R2000 10/12 - 10/15 40 56 -16
Marist 10/07 - 10/12 48 47 +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/01 - 10/05 40 56 -16
Associated Press/GfK 10/01 - 10/05 41 51 -10
Quinnipiac 09/29 - 10/05 30 69 -39
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Let me know what you think about the latest numbers. Do you trust poll results?
 
As always, thanks for making WYMT-TV your source for news and information.  We appreciate your trust.
 
God Bless America!
 
Neil Middleton
WYMT Mountain News
Appreciate Freedom – Thank a Vet!
 
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