Neil

Rasmussen poll shows GOP victory in KY’s U.S. Senate race

A new Rasmussen poll shows Republicans Trey Grayson and Rand Paul extending their lead to double digits over the top Democratic challengers.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Republicans Trey Grayson and Rand Paul extending their lead to double digits over the top Democratic challengers.

 

The poll suggests the health care debate in Washington is helping the Republicans.

 

“Not only did the Republican contenders gain ground in the latest survey, but both Democrats saw their support go down.  This highlights the difficult political environment for Democrats in Kentucky, giving voter unhappiness over the national health care plan and the country’s bad economy.”

 

Kentucky Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 3, 2010

2010 Kentucky Senate Race

Trey Grayson (R)

46%

Daniel Mongiardo (D)

33%

Some Other Candidate

5%

Not Sure

16%

 

2010 Kentucky Senate Race

Rand Paul (R)

51%

Daniel Mongiardo (D)

34%

Some Other Candidate

3%

Not Sure

12%

 

2010 Kentucky Senate Race

Trey Grayson (R)

49%

Jack Conway (D)

31%

Some Other Candidate

6%

Not Sure

14%

 

2010 Kentucky Senate Race

Rand Paul (R)

49%

Jack Conway (D)

34%

Some Other Candidate

4%

Not Sure

13%

 

Here is the full Rasmussen Report.

 

The two strongest Republican Senate hopefuls in Kentucky have edged further ahead of their top Democrat challengers in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul leads Democratic Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 51% to 34%. Last month he led Mongiardo 48% to 37%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Paul, son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, now posts a 49% to 34% lead over state Attorney General Jack Conway. In the previous survey, he had a 47% to 39% lead over Conway. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 13% more are undecided.

Trey Grayson, Kentucky’s secretary of state, is locked in a tight GOP Primary battle with Paul and registers similar numbers against the two Democrats. Grayson leads Mongiardo 46%to 33%. Five percent (5%) opt for some other candidate, while 16% are undecided. In February, Grayson had a 49% to 35% lead in this match-up.

With Conway as his opponent, Grayson earns 49% of the vote to his opponent’s 31%. Last month, he was ahead by a much narrow 44% to 40%. Given this match-up, six percent (6%) favor another candidate, and 14% are undecided.

In late September, Conway ran even with Grayson and beat Paul by four points. Both Republicans have pulled further ahead of Mongiardo, whose numbers had changed little until this month.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The candidates are running for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Jim Bunning. Both parties will select their candidates in May 18 primaries.

Not only did the Republican contenders gain ground in the latest survey, but both Democrats saw their support go down. This highlights the difficult political environment for Democrats in Kentucky, given voter unhappiness over the national health care plan and the country’s bad economy.

John McCain carried Kentucky by 17 points over Barack Obama, 58% to 41%, in the November 2008 election.

Thirty-seven percent(37%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, down five points from a month ago. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove. These findings include 20% who strongly approve of the job the president is doing and 49% who strongly disapprove. This gives Obama a much lower job approval rating in Kentucky than he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Opposition to the health care plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats is much higher in Kentucky, too. Thirty-four percent favor that plan, with 18% who strongly favor it. But 61% are opposed, including 53% who are strongly opposed.

As is the case in other states throughout the country, the Republicans handily win the votes of those who are strongly opposed to the health care plan, while the Democrats pick up a sizable majority of those who are strongly in favor of the plan.

Just 25% of all voters in Kentucky rate the president’s handling of health care as good or excellent. Fifty-eight percent (58%) say he’s done a poor job.

Sixty-two percent (62%) say a better strategy to reform health care would be to pass smaller bills that address problems individually. Twenty-three percent (23%) still think a comprehensive bill that covers all aspects of the health care system is a better way to go.

When it comes to health care decisions, 55% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Thirty-four percent (34%) fear private insurers more.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters in Kentucky say the economy will be stronger a year from now, but 43% say it will be weaker. Nineteen percent (19%) expect the economy to stay about the same.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe it will take three years or more for housing prices to recover. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say it is still possible for anyone who really wants to work to find a job, but 46% disagree.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Paul is viewed very favorably by 18% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%).

Eleven percent (11%) have a very favorable opinion of Grayson, while five percent (5%) regard him very unfavorably.

For Mongiardo, very favorables are 17% and very unfavorables 20%.

Conway earns very favorables of 12% and very unfavorables of 13%.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Kentucky voters now think it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were not reelected this November. Only 12% think otherwise.

Just 24% rate their own representative in Congress as the best possible person for the job, and only slightly more (36%) say their local Congress member deserves to be reelected.

Forty-eight percent (48%) approve of the job performance of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, and the identical number (48%) disapprove. These numbers include 11% who strongly approve of the job he is doing and 17% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are virtually unchanged from last month.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri,Nevada,New Hampshire,New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennyslvania, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Most show a troubling political environment for the Democratic candidates.

On the Republican side, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison was hurt by the national political mood in her unsuccessful bid to defeat incumbent Governor Rick Perry for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Texas. Even Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson, who has no serious Democratic opposition to date, falls just under 50% which means he is potentially vulnerable in November.

 

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Neil Middleton
WYMT Mountain News
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