Neil

New poll shows Mongiardo and Paul with lopsided leads

A new statewide poll shows Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican Rand Paul have strong leads in their Senate primary campaigns. With just a little more than two months to go before voters cast their ballots, both contests appear to be lopsided.

A new statewide poll shows Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican Rand Paul have strong leads in their Senate primary campaigns.

With just a little more than two months to go before voters cast their ballots, both contests appear to be lopsided.

The Courier-Journal/WHASBluegrass Poll found Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo leading State Attorney General Jack Conway 45 percent to 27 percent.

Rand Paul, a Bowling Green eye doctor, leads Secretary of State Trey Grayson 42 percent to 27 percent.

Undecided voters were 19 percent in both polls.

All other candidates in the field polled at five percent or less.

You can read the complete poll results here.

WHAS Political Reporter Joe Arnold caught up with the Democratic frontrunners.  You can watch his report here.

Republican candidate Bill Johnson issued this News Release regarding the poll results.

SURVEY USA POLL RESULTS
Celebrity Name Recognition or May 18th Primary Reality?

ELKTON —Kentucky GOP U.S. Senate Candidate Bill Johnson today issued the following statement regarding the Survey USA poll.

“The methodology used in the Survey USA poll took a sample of Kentucky residents with a telephone number and asked them if they were registered Republicans and likely to vote in the primary.  History shows that regardless of the answer, only 1 in 5 will actually cast a vote in the Republican primary.  This is a name recognition poll more appropriate to a general election than a Republican primary.

“The Survey USA methodology disclaimer states, ‘There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors.’

“What a fraud.  Out of the approximately one million registered Republicans, about 200,000 will cast primary votes.  When a sample is taken from the 200,000 with a history of primary voting, a much different picture emerges.  I remain confident in my campaign’s base of support and continued progress in this primary election.

“As a businessman, I understand it is important to base decisions and actions on proper data. I would have been tossed out of any good business executive’s office with a story and disclaimer like the one presented by Survey USA.  To say that the voters of Kentucky are buying Rand Paul when 4 out of 5 of those shoppers have never been to a primary election store is simply crazy.

“I will remain in this race primary race until the results on May 18th.  The media, pollsters, Washington elite, power brokers, and money machines will not deter my efforts.”

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Here is more reaction from the Associated Press.

(AP) - Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Dan Mongiardo have strong leads in their U.S. Senate primary campaigns, according to a new statewide poll.

     

The Courier-Journal/WHAS-11 Bluegrass Poll found Paul, a Bowling Green doctor, leads Secretary of State Trey Grayson 42 percent to 27 percent in the GOP race. Mongiardo, the state's lieutenant governor, leads Attorney General Conway by a similar wide margin, 45 to 27 percent.

     

Undecided voters were at 19 percent in both polls.

     

The Republican poll had a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points and the Democrat poll's margin is 4.1 percentage points. It was based on phone interviews March 1-3 with 454 likely Republican voters and 590 likely Democratic voters. SurveyUSA used a recorded questionnaire in conducting the polls.

     

The remaining candidates polled at 5 percent or less.

     

The newspaper reported that the poll was conducted during a period when Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning, a retiring Republican, was coming under heavy criticism from Democrats for blocking a bill that provided an extension to unemployment payments.

     

Paul's campaign manger, David Adams, said he has seen other polls with Paul in a strong lead.

     

"Rand Paul has earned a lot of credibility on the issues

Kentuckians care about, like a balanced federal budget, term limits, strong national defense and following the U.S.

Constitution," he said in a statement.

     

Grayson's campaign head said Grayson is more concerned with the final election results.

    

"Once Kentucky Republicans learn more about the radical views of Rand Paul ... they will have a different opinion," Nate Hodson said.

     

Meanwhile Mongiardo's campaign spokesman says they weren't surprised by the numbers.

     

"They confirm that Daniel Mongiardo is the candidate Kentucky families trust the most to fight for them in the Senate," Kim Geveden said.

     

Conway spokeswoman Allison Haley said they are focusing on a "long-term campaign strategy."

     

"We are confident (Conway) is the best candidate," she said.

     

Paul, the son of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, led in the demographic groups based on age, gender, education and income level, according to the poll.

 

Mongiardo leads across gender and age groups and is particularly strong with older voters, according to the poll.

     

The remaining candidates in the Republican race were Bill

Johnson, 5 percent; Gurley Martin, 3 percent; John Stephenson, 2 percent; Jon Scribner, 1 percent.

 

The remaining Democrats were

Darlene Price, 4 percent; James Buckmaster, 3 percent; Maurice Sweeney 2 percent.

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What do you think about the latest polling numbers?  Let me know your thoughts.

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God Bless America!
 
Neil Middleton
WYMT Mountain News
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