New poll predicts Paul vs. Mongiardo in November

Two weeks before the May Primary election a new poll suggest Republican Rand Paul will face Democrat Daniel Mongiardo in November for Kentucky’s U.S. Senate seat.

Two weeks before the May Primary election a new poll suggest Republican Rand Paul will face Democrat Daniel Mongiardo in November for Kentucky’s U.S. Senate seat.

Public Policy Polling shows Rand Paul has a commanding 18-point lead over Secretary of StateTrey Grayson.  Those numbers are almost unchanged from December 2009.


Rand Paul            46%

Trey Grayson       28%

The President of Public Policy Polling, Dean Debnam says “Trey Grayson has made no headway in over four months, and it looks like Rand Paul is set to deliver a serious blow to the national Republican Party establishment.”

This week 5th District Congressman Hal Rogers and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell both endorsed Trey Grayson’s bid for the U.S. Senate.

On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo has a nine point lead over State Attorney General Jack Conway.


Daniel Mongiardo 36%

Jack Conway       27%

The polls states, “neither Mongiardo nor Conway is better liked, but 51% of voters have no opinion of Conway, versus 36% for Mongiardo, so there is more room for Conway to grow his support.”

Click here to view the full results.



Here is what the

Director of Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen has to say about Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.



Paul continues to lead big

Rand Paul continues to hold a dominating lead over Trey Grayson in the Republican primary for the Senate from Kentucky. It's 46-28 this month.

What's less clear is what's driving Paul's continuing dominance in the race. He does have a big lead with Republicans who think the party's too liberal, voters unhappy with the general direction of the party, and folks who consider themselves members of the 'Tea Party. But he has similarly large advantages among voters who think the party is ideologically 'about right,' folks who are happy with the current direction of the GOP, and Republicans who don't consider themselves members of the 'Tea Party.' So there's something more to Paul's current advantage than the conventional wisdom that he's effectively riding the wave of the 'Tea Party' movement.

Paul's lead also can't be chalked up to a large level of support in Kentucky for his father's unique brand of Libertarian Republicanism. Ron Paul earns only 6% in a look ahead to the 2012 GOP contest for President, well behind Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney.

Nor can it be attributed to a repudiation of Mitch McConnell, who although he's just now officially endorsed in the race has clearly been behind Grayson from day 1. Asked whether they have a higher opinion of McConnell or Jim Bunning, Kentucky Republicans pick the Senate Minority Leader by a 67-16 margin. If Paul holds this lead for the last two weeks and does indeed win the primary there will surely be a temptation among pundits to call it a victory for Bunning and a repudiation of McConnell but that just doesn't really hold true.

Whatever the reason for Paul's large lead it's clear that all the mud that's been slung in both directions over the course of the last four months in this race hasn't made a lot of difference. Paul was up 44-25 when we looked at in December, and since then he's gained two points in support while Grayson's
gained three. It's going to take a large turnaround in the final two weeks for Paul not to be the victor.


I hope to post reactions from all four campaigns sometime tomorrow.

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