The poll was conducted on June 28th and surveyed 500 likely voters in Kentucky. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Here are the latest numbers.
Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Rand Paul (R) 49%
Jack Conway (D) 42%
Some Other Candidate 3%
Not Sure 6%
Rasmussen writes, “While men in Kentucky give the edge to Paul, women are evenly divided between the nominees. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Paul holds a 54% to 36% advantage.
Opposition to the national health care bill remains higher in Kentucky than it is nationally. Sixty percent (60%) of voters in the state favor repeal of the bill, while 36% are opposed. Those numbers include 44% who strongly Favor repeal and 26% who Strongly Oppose it.
Paul receives 75% support from the larger group that Strongly Favors repeal of the law, while 72% who of those who Strongly Oppose repeal back Conway.”
Here is the complete report from Rasmussen
The U.S. Senate race in Kentucky is little changed from earlier this month, with Republican Rand Paul continuing to hold a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Paul picking up 49% support to Conway’s 42%. Three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.
With the exception of immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 41% of the vote. The Democrat has never led in matchups between the two candidates.
While men in Kentucky give the edge to Paul, women are evenly divided between the nominees. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Paul holds a 54% to 36% advantage.
Opposition to the national health care bill remains higher in Kentucky than it is nationally. Sixty percent (60%) of voters in the state favor repeal of the bill, while 36% are opposed. Those numbers include 44% who Strongly Favor repeal and 26% who Strongly Oppose it.
Paul receives 75% support from the larger group that Strongly Favors repeal of the law, while 72% who of those who Strongly Oppose repeal back Conway.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on June 28, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
When it comes to immigration, 54% in Kentucky favor passage of a law similar to Arizona’s in their state, comparable to findings nationally. Virtually the same number (57%) do not think the U.S. Department of Justice should challenge the legality of the new law, also in line with voter sentiments nationally.
Paul picks up roughly 70% support from those would favor passage of an Arizona-like law in Kentucky and those who oppose a federal challenge to the state law. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of those who oppose such a law in the state support Conway, as do 67% of those who favor a Justice Department challenge.
Twenty-five percent (25%) of the state’s voters share a Very Favorable opinion of Paul, while nearly the same number (24%) view him Very Unfavorably.
Conway receives Very Favorable reviews from 17% and Very Unfavorable marks from 11%.
At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.
Despite the ongoing oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, 63% in Kentucky favor offshore oil drilling, and 54% also support deepwater drilling. Those numbers are slightly more supportive of both than those on the national level.
Thirty percent (30%) rate President Obama’s handling of the oil leak situation as good or excellent, while 49% give him poor ratings. The same number (49%) gives a poor rating to the response of the companies involved with leak, British Petroleum and Transocean. Thirteen percent (13%) give the companies responsible for the incident positive ratings.
Fifteen percent (15%) in Kentucky believe individual states have the right to leave the United States and form an independent country, comparable to results found nationwide. Twenty-three percent (23%) say this is likely to happen in the next 25 years, but only nine percent (9%) say it's Very Likely.
John McCain carried Kentucky over Obama in the November 2008 elections by a 58% to 41% spread. Forty-one percent (41%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 58% disapprove, marking a small improvement from earlier this month.
These ratings are slightly lower than the approval ratings Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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