POLL SHOWS SLIGHT LUNSFORD LEAD

      Polls taken two days after the media hoopla surrounding a competitive primary victory can certainly skew a poll.   That having been said…. the Bruce Lunsford camp is trying to draw some attention to an independent statewide poll.

     The Rasmussen Poll shows the race between Lunsford and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is competitive.

     The poll shows Democrat Lunsford leading McConnell 49% to 44%.   The poll has a margin of error of 4.5%.

      The same poll shows McConnell has a slightly more favorable rating with voters than Lunsford.  That leads some observers to predict the slight Lunsford advantage is likely to quickly subside.   Still it’s the first time since his first statewide run that McConnell has trailed in a widely published election poll.

        Rasmussan goes on to predict that McConnell still has a 70% chance of winning re-election.

UPDATE: McCONNELL CALLS POLL INTO QUESTION

      It didn’t take the McConnell camp long to question the results of the Rasmussan poll and to question the polling firm’s reliability.

        In a notice to the media… the McConnell campaign said its own internal polling shows McConnell with an 11-point lead…. 50% for McConnell to 39% for Lunsford.   The note also said the Rasmussan poll relies on recordings instead of live pollsters.

EXPENSIVE RACE  

       It is going to be an expensive race… Lunsford said so during our “Kentucky Newsmakers” program.   And McConnell is known for prolific fundraising.   He has said money equals speech in elections.

       Lunsford is also interested in whom is chosen to be likely Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s running mate.   He saw Hillary Clinton’s 35-point victory over Obama in Kentucky as quite a challenge for Obama in the fall.   Lunsford predicts he’ll win his own race and America will elect a Democratic president.  But Lunsford realizes that his campaign might benefit from the efforts of a running mate who is more popular in Kentucky than Obama has proven to be so far.

LARSON GOP CANDIDATE FOR CONGRESS

     The only campaign oriented site for Jon Larson, the Republican nominee for Congress in Central Kentucky is a blog site.  kyduiblog.typepad.com/jonlarson/  

      It talks briefly about Larson’s recent primary victory and talks about his stands on issues.   He favors ID cards for illegal immigrants, as well as a path to amnesty.  Larson also lists his priorities, with national security at the top of the list.

        Larson is set to take on Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler, who is seeking a third full term in Washington.  Chandler is much better known, better funded so far, and has to be heavily favored to win at this point.

         Chandler has endorsed Obama for president.  Obama carried Fayette, which is Chandler’s most populous county, but lost all other counties in the district.

LOCALS WONDER ABOUT NATIONAL TRENDS

       Many local officeholders are running for chiefly non-partisan jobs around the state this fall.  City councils and commissions are being seated for the next two years.  Many of those races could be impacted by voter trends in the November election.   Excitement by one party over another could be among the dynamics to watch.   So could higher than usual voter turnout, leading to a surge vote in local races.

          Bill Bryant

          WKYT 27 NEWSFIRST