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Good Question: How is voter turnout determined?

Three Republicans vying for a shot at governor will take top billing when voters head to the polls in the primary election.

If predictions ring true, those voters won't be met with a lot of company, low voter turnout is expected.

Good Question: How is voter turnout determined?

It appears a primary election where some key statewide offices are up for grabs isn't a big seller for voters.

"We're looking at about 10% voter turnout," said Fayette County Clerk Don Blevins, Jr.

What ever the turnout come Tuesday, Blevins still has to have all his precincts ready to go.

He says he isn't surprised by the projected turnout.

"Long term it matches fairly well with prior primary elections of this kind, however against a presidential election in a general election it would be much higher in the 70-80% range," said Blevins.

When it comes to figuring out just how many people will actually vote, math wizards have a formula.

Here it is PB + D > C

What does that mean.

P- is for probability someone will vote
B- is for perceived benefit a voter will get from casting a ballot
D represents a person's actual gratification
C is related to the time, effort and cost associated with a voter making the effort to vote.

The formula says that for a person to vote factors P, B and D must all outweigh C.

In Fayette County, Blevins isn't solving math problems to figure his projected numbers.

"The way we do it locally is that we somewhat rely on what's going on with absentee voting prior to the election, we rely somewhat on past history as well and that's about all you've got."

Because of what is sure to be a heated Governor's race come the fall, Blevins expects a 40 to 45 % voter turnout in November.


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