WASHINGTON (AP) - Hurricane forecasters expect more tropical
storms than normal this season, and "it just takes one to make it
a bad year," says Conrad Lautenbacher, head of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
National Weather Service forecasters said Tuesday they expect 13
to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes
and three to five of them in the strong category. NOAA is the
parent agency of the weather service.
David Paulison, director of the Federal Emergency Management
Agency, said what keeps him up at night is concern about individual
preparedness.
"If we are going to survive these storms it takes all of us to
be ready," Paulison said, urging that the millions of residents in
vulnerable areas prepare their homes for the storms and keep at
least three days food and supplies on hand.
After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005 there
were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm
striking, but the unexpected development of the El Nino climate
phenomenon helped dampen conditions.
El Nino is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs
every few years. The warm water affects wind patterns that guide
weather movement and its effects can be seen worldwide. In El Nino
years, there tend to be fewer summer hurricanes in the Atlantic
Ocean.
But El Nino is over and conditions could develop that might even
encourage more storms, said Bill Proenza, head of the National
Hurricane Center.
Earlier this month Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at
Colorado State University, and Joe Bastardi, the chief hurricane
forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., said they anticipate a more active
storm cycle this year.
And, almost as if to underscore their comments, a subtropical
storm formed off the southeast coast and became Andrea, the first
named storm of the year, well before the June 1 official beginning
of hurricane season.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30, but the strange season of 2005
ran over into late December, as well as using up all the planned
alphabetical names, forcing storm watchers to switch to the Greek
alphabet to continue naming storms.
Last year, there were just 10 tropical storms in the Atlantic
and just two made landfall in the United States.
While last year proved quieter than expected and 2005's parade
of storms caused the weather service to raise its prediction, the
number of tropical storms predicted in May was within the expected
range in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2004. The forecast was low in 2001
and 2003.
More important to hurricane forecasters is their ability to
predict when and where a particular storm will go, something that
has improved steadily in recent years.
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On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.noaa.gov

(Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)