Chief Meteorologist Chris Bailey's 2015-16 winter forecast

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LEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) - The cold has finally hit and WKYT’s Chief Meteorologist Chris Bailey said to expect the unexpected when it comes to preparing for this year’s winter weather.

“It’s going to be one of those winters that is back-loaded. By that I mean we are going to have the worst of the winter weather -- similar to what happened the past two years -- during the second half of winter," Bailey said.

That said, Bailey does not think this winter will be anything like 2014. In 2014, the Bluegrass State was hit with record snow and cold that began in November and intensified by January. Bailey predicted a colder-than-normal winter and a record snowfall, similar to that of 1976. The winter of 1976-77 was "legendary," Bailey said.

Bailey was right about his 2014 prediction -- and his 2013 prediction.

In 2013, Bailey made a bold prediction "I think I think we finally break that 17-year drought, before this winter is over," he said. That March ended with over 17 inches of snow.

This year, Bailey has made it clear the two historic back-to-back snow storms are not going to become the new norm.

“We are not going to have the snows that are that deep, we are not going to have the 20-below-zero temperatures," he said. "But they should still prepare for probably a month-period of pretty harsh winter weather.”

For now, people in the bluegrass should not worry about heavy winter weather. Bailey said this year’s winter weather is on a delayed pattern.

December is going to give us some fairly mild spells mixed with a few cold spells.

“I think toward the second half of January and into much of February we will probably get into a four to five week window where we get the majority of our snows,” he said.

Bailey said the dominating global factor is that we are looking at one of the strongest El Nino’s on record in the pacific.

“I can’t find an El Nino that is similar to this one is terms of strength and placement of the warmest waters in the pacific,” he said.

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